Pollster Says Harris Lead in Oakland County Could Provides Clues to Michigan Race in November

A just-released poll showing Vice President Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump 50-41 percent in suburban Oakland County could be a good indicator of how the presidential election in Michigan goes in November, says author of the poll, Ed Sarpolus, executive director of Target Insyght.

The July 28-30 poll of 400 voters in Oakland County, which was once Red but now considered Purple and leaning toward Blue, shows Trump with a 57 percent unfavorable rating and a 40 percent favorable one. That compares to a 48 percent unfavorable rating for Harris and a 47 percent favorable one. The poll has a margin of error of minus or plus 5 points.

Oakland is the wealthiest county in the state.

Among Republicans, Trump has a 15 percent unfavorable rating. Among Democrats, Harris has only a 2 percent unfavorable rating. 

What's more, the poll shows 83 percent of the Republicans favor Trump, 10 percent say they'd vote for Harris while 6 percent favor a third party candidate. Conversely, 96 percent of the Democrats favor Harris and only 4 percent are undecided. 

"There's a solid force of Democrats behind Kamala Harris," Sarpolus said, adding that the Republican's solidarity for Trump in Oakland County is far weaker.

"Trump is going to find it hard to take on Kamala Harris when he's beating himself. You can't beat the challenger if you're at 57 percent negative and she's only at 48 percent negative. You've got to fix your own problems before you attack your opponent."

"Trump essentially is running negative. He's essentially beating himself. He cannot count on Republicans alone to win this race."

Rep. Elissa Slotkin

The poll also shows Demoratic U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin leading Republican ex-Congressman Mike Rogers in the U.S. Senate race 52 percent to 41 percent with 7 percent undecided. Both are expected to easily win in the Aug. 6 primary. 

A Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll published Tuesday shows Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris leading Republican opponent Donald Trump by 11 percentage points in Michigan, Reuters news service reports.